The talk about gun sales after the midterms is loud, and gun owners keep asking the same three things. Are sales really spiking? Is this 2020 all over again?
And should we be buying now?
Short answers: not proven yet, not even close, and only if you already had a plan. The only official numbers so far cover October, before anyone voted. Here’s what they show, what they can’t show, and the date the real answer arrives.
At a Glance: Gun Sales After the Midterms
- October checks: 1,402,422 sale-related background checks, up 7.9 percent from October 2025. That month ended before Election Day.
- Raw FBI count: 2,104,063 checks, down 8.1 percent from last October. Fewer carry-permit checks pulled the raw number down.
- Searches: Google searches for “gun sales” rose about 55 percent in the week through November 5.
- Post-election data: November’s numbers should come out in early December.
- Rumor alert: A viral “90-day blackout” claim is driving some buying. There’s no credible evidence for it.
This article is for education, not legal or financial advice. Check your state’s laws before you buy or transfer a firearm.
There is no official proof yet of a spike in gun sales after the midterms. The latest numbers cover October, before the November 3 vote. NSSF counted 1,402,422 sale-related background checks that month, up 7.9 percent from a year earlier. November data should come out in early December.
Are gun sales after the midterms really spiking?
Not provably yet. The only official numbers cover October, and October ended before the November 3 vote. Those numbers do show buying picked up. The National Shooting Sports Foundation, or NSSF, is the gun industry’s trade group. It counted 1,402,422 sale-related background checks in October. That’s up 7.9 percent from 1,299,312 in October 2025, according to its November 4 release.
Here’s our read. People saw the election coming and some bought early. That fits a pattern gun owners know well. Worry about new laws moves faster than the laws do.
After the vote, the signals are louder but softer in quality. Google searches for “gun sales” rose about 55 percent from October 29 to November 5, based on Google Trends data as of November 7. One South Carolina store owner told reporters his sales are up 60 to 70 percent, Bearing Arms reported. Those are real signs of interest. But searches aren’t purchases, and one store isn’t the country.
Is a background check the same as a gun sale?
No. A background check is not a sale, which is why we watch the adjusted number. Here’s how the counting works.
- NICS. That’s the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System. A licensed dealer runs your name through it before handing you a gun.
- Raw FBI count. It counts every check, including checks for carry permits and permit rechecks. Those aren’t gun sales.
- NSSF-adjusted count. NSSF subtracts the permit checks to estimate checks tied to real sales. It’s the closest public stand-in for sales.
- What neither counts. One check can cover several guns in one purchase. And in some states, a qualifying carry permit lets you skip a new check.
- Ammo. Federal law requires no background check to buy ammunition. A few states, like California and New York, do. So most ammo stocking up never shows in these numbers.
October shows why this matters. The raw FBI count fell 8.1 percent from last October, to 2,104,063. The adjusted count rose 7.9 percent. So permit checks dropped while sale checks climbed. If you only read the raw number, you’d think buying slowed down. It didn’t.
How to read gun sales numbers
| Number | What it measures | What it can’t tell you |
|---|---|---|
| Raw FBI NICS checks | Every background check, including carry permits | How many guns were sold |
| NSSF-adjusted checks | Checks tied to likely sales | Guns per sale, or buyers who skip a check with a permit |
| Google search interest | How many people are curious | Whether they bought anything |
| Store owner reports | What one store is seeing | What the whole country is doing |
Sources: NSSF October 2026 release, Google Trends.
Is this 2020 all over again?
Not even close, so far. In 2020, NSSF counted 21 million background checks for gun sales. That year brought an estimated 8.4 million first-time buyers, NSSF reported. That works out to about 1.75 million sale checks a month. October 2026 came in at about 1.4 million. That’s a strong month, but it’s well below the 2020 pace.
The 2020 spike had a lot pushing it at once: a pandemic, unrest in many cities, and an election. This year, so far, the push is mostly political. That’s a smaller engine.
What actually causes a gun-buying spike?
The biggest jumps come before a specific law with a start date, not after an election night. Virginia is the clearest recent example.
In April 2026, Virginia lawmakers were moving an AR-15 sales ban. Sales-related checks in Virginia jumped nearly 79 percent from a year earlier, per an NSSF analysis reported by The Firearm Blog. Virginia ranked second in the country for long gun sales that month. The ban was signed May 14 and a court blocked it in July. But buyers moved before the deadline, not after it.
Our read: an election creates worry. A law with a date creates a deadline. Deadlines are what move buyers in big numbers. Democrats now control Congress, but a national ban still needs 60 Senate votes. The real deadlines in 2027 are more likely to come from state legislatures. Our midterm election breakdown explains why.
Don’t let a rumor set your budget
A viral claim says a 90-day nationwide blackout is coming. Bearing Arms reports there’s no credible evidence for it. The claim may be a twisted version of a Pentagon plan for military bases to run on their own for 90 days in a disaster. Buy for your real needs, not for a social media post.
When will we know if gun sales rose after the midterms?
In early December, when NSSF posts November’s numbers. NSSF released October’s data on November 4. So November’s should land in the first days of December.
Here’s what we’ll check first:
- The adjusted number vs. November 2025. That’s the cleanest year-over-year test.
- Black Friday. It’s one of the busiest gun-buying days of the year. A strong November isn’t news by itself. A much stronger one than last year would be.
- Handguns vs. long guns. A jump in long guns would point to fear of rifle bans.
- Hot states. Watch states where lawmakers are pushing new bans, like Virginia did this spring.
Until then, anyone claiming a record post-election surge is guessing. As of this writing, no official post-election sales data exists.
Do one thing today
If you were already planning a purchase, check your state’s rules first in our gun laws by state guide. Save your receipt, because some proposed laws protect guns owned before a set date. Grandfather rules can change later, but proof of the date is still your best record.
Budget for safe storage and practice ammo, not just the gun. As an Amazon Associate, GunCarrier earns from qualifying purchases. A keyed steel lockbox with a security cable (paid link) works at home or in a vehicle. It’s a basic box, not a quick-access fingerprint safe. For bigger setups, our home gun safe guide compares the options.
And if you weren’t planning to buy, a headline isn’t a reason to start. An election is a reason to read the law, not to rush a purchase.
Frequently asked questions
There’s no official proof yet. The latest data covers October, before the November 3 vote. That month, NSSF counted 1,402,422 sale-related background checks, up 7.9 percent from October 2025. Searches and some store reports point to more interest since the vote. November’s official numbers should come out in early December.
No. The FBI’s NICS system counts every check, including checks for carry permits, which aren’t sales. One check can also cover several guns. NSSF subtracts permit checks to estimate sales, so its adjusted number is the better guide. Even that misses buyers who use a carry permit instead of a new check.
In October, the raw FBI count fell 8.1 percent from a year earlier, but NSSF’s adjusted count rose 7.9 percent. That means fewer carry-permit checks and more sale-related checks. Reading only the raw number would make it look like buying slowed down when it actually picked up.
Not so far. In 2020, NSSF counted 21 million background checks for gun sales, about 1.75 million a month, and an estimated 8.4 million first-time buyers. October 2026 came in at about 1.4 million. That’s a solid month, but it’s well below the 2020 pace.
The biggest jumps usually come before a specific law with a start date. In April 2026, Virginia’s sale-related checks jumped nearly 79 percent from a year earlier as lawmakers moved an AR-15 sales ban. Elections create worry. Laws with deadlines move buyers in large numbers.
NSSF usually posts its adjusted numbers in the first days of the following month. It released October’s data on November 4, so November’s should land in early December. Black Friday usually boosts November, so the real test is how it compares with November 2025.
There’s no credible evidence for it. The claim spread on social media and may come from a Pentagon plan for military bases to operate on their own for 90 days during a disaster. Bearing Arms reported that one South Carolina store saw sales jump as the rumor spread.
Only if you already had a plan and a real need. Check your state’s laws first and save your receipt, since some proposed laws protect guns owned before a set date. Budget for safe storage and practice. A headline is not a reason to rush a purchase.
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